Has the Greens vote peaked?
The Peel by-election has seen only a marginal increase in the Green’s primary vote, inspite of renewed concern for environmental issues in the public arena.
The 2006 Victorian election saw the Greens pick up a handful of upper house seats, but that was because of electoral reform, and not because on any signifigant increase in support.
So what do you think, have we reached the extent of Green support in the community? Could the the Greens vote suffer a decline in 2007? Have some section of the voting public bought the recent major party green wash on global warming?
Post a comment with your thoughts.
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Posted: by Kieran February 3rd, 2007 under 2007 Federal Election.
Comments: 4
Comments
Comment from Kieran
Time: February 4, 2007, 12:15 pm
Whoa! Poll bludger is now reporting a 2.9% swing to the Greens, which is over a third of their 2005 result of 6.4%.
I’ve heard of the Greens vote increasing later in the count (Greens voters are more likely to postal vote, Greens voters are more likely to vote at larger booths which take longer to count), but that’s just massive.
Who know’s, maybe the long term dream of Green government is alive and kicking?
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Time: February 4, 2007, 2:18 pm
[…] arse for posts when you can’t be bothered. As such, the Dead Roo will now feature a regular Weekend Question Thread. Rebecca has got dibbs on posing next weekends question, mainly because mine […]
Comment from The Poll Bludger
Time: February 5, 2007, 2:53 pm
Actually, postal votes came in first at this by-election for some reason -and in Peel at least, the Greens don’t appear to do particularly well here (6 or 7 per cent). That largely explains why my early swing figure would not have been so good for the Greens. Unfortunately, I didn’t entirely have my act together on Saturday and and my early primary vote swing figures were not comparing like with like - so the 6 or 7 per cent pre-poll/postals were being measured against the overall total from 2005. The Greens vote was actually up in every booth, by between 1.0 per cent and 4.4 per cent.
Comment from Kieran
Time: February 5, 2007, 5:27 pm
Another factor to consider is that the Greens usually expect as a Greens supporter I ususally expect the party* to poll signifigantly better in a bi-election (without the focus on who will form government, more latent Greens supporters won’t be delluded by the supposed importance of the major parties), this combined with the fact that we also expect our vote to increase at any election over time (the idea being that as time goes on, more latent Greens supporters get totally fed up with the major parties that they finally give the Greens their first preference), could make this a poor result for the Greens. But then again Peel defied everyone’s established ideas about tendencies in bi-elections.
*repeat after me Kieran, “I am not the party spokesperson!”
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